SEC picks, Week 1

Clemson at LSU· Sat, Sep 5 · 9:40 PM ET

Spread

Clemson +10

-110

Clemson getting ten points in a Week 1 game is a price I'll look at every time, because a program of that caliber doesn't usually need a touchdown and a field goal spotted to it. Ten is a real number in this sport, and with a total of 48.5 the books are telling you points will be scarce, which makes double digits worth more. Night game in Baton Rouge is loud, but I'm taking the number, not the noise.

Clemson at LSU· Sat, Sep 5 · 9:40 PM ET

Total

Under 48.5

-110

Week 1 between two programs that recruit the line of scrimmage this hard usually turns into a fight in the trenches, and offenses rarely have their timing and protection calls sharp in the opener. A night game in that building, with a quarterback reading disguised fronts he has not seen on film yet, points me toward long drives that stall and field goals instead of touchdowns. At 48.5 I want the side that bets on the defensive fronts setting the tone.

Baylor at Auburn· Sat, Sep 5 · 3:30 PM ET

Spread

Baylor +6.5

-110

Baylor plus 6.5 at a neutral site, and the hook keeps you on the right side of seven, the most important number on the board. The moneyline at -258 puts Auburn around 72 percent to win outright, and that's a lot of confidence in an opener with plenty of unknowns on both sidelines. I'll take the points and let the favorite prove it can win by more than one score.

Baylor at Auburn· Sat, Sep 5 · 3:30 PM ET

Total

Under 58.5

-110

Neutral-site openers between Power Four teams tend to be cautious, with both staffs leaning on the run game and keeping things vanilla until they learn what they really have up front. Offensive lines that have not played a live snap together are the biggest unknown in Week 1, and that usually means stalled drives and missed assignments rather than shootouts. 58.5 prices in an efficient, crisp game, and I do not expect that this early in September.

Baylor at Auburn· Sat, Sep 5 · 3:30 PM ET

Total

Over 58.5

-110

My colleagues are cozy on Baylor and the under in this one, and when the desk huddles together, I go stand on the other side of the room. A neutral-site opener between two teams that will want to throw it around, with a number shaded down by all that defensive optimism, looks like the overreaction to me. If the desk is this sure it will be a rock fight, I will take the shootout.

Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Missouri· Thu, Sep 3 · 8:00 PM ET

Total

Under 62.5

-110

A 55.5-point spread with a 62.5 total means the market has this at roughly 59 to 3, so Missouri has to do nearly all the scoring by itself. Once a game like this gets out of hand, the starters sit, the play calls go vanilla and the clock keeps running. I don't need the underdog to score at all for this to work, I just need the favorite to take its foot off the gas, and that's usually how these go.

Louisville at Ole Miss· Sun, Sep 6 · 7:30 PM ET

Spread

Louisville +6.5

-110

At -110 the breakeven is 52.4 percent, and the moneylines imply Louisville wins roughly 30 percent of the time after removing the vig, which is consistent with a spread nearer five or six than a full touchdown. At a neutral site, 6.5 sits just under the key number of 7, so I estimate Louisville covers about 54 to 55 percent of the time. The gap is small but real, and I am not building it on any season-opener narrative.

Furman at Tennessee· Sat, Sep 5 · 3:30 PM ET

Total

Under 66.5

-110

A 49.5-point spread with a 66.5 total implies roughly 58 to 8, which requires the favorite to keep scoring after the margin is settled. FCS mismatches tend to bring backups, conservative play calling and a running clock in the second half, and those drag totals down. I put the under near 54 percent against a 52.4 percent breakeven, a modest edge in a market where opening-week estimates rest on very little data.

East Carolina at Alabama· Sat, Sep 5 · 12:00 PM ET

Total

Under 52.5

-110

The number implies roughly Alabama 40.5, East Carolina 12, so the over needs both offenses to perform in a game whose second half is likely to be played at low intensity. With a four-score favorite, I expect the pace to fall once the outcome is clear, and I estimate the under at about 53 percent against the 52.4 percent breakeven. This is the thinnest of my three edges, and Week 1 totals carry wide error bars.

Texas State at Texas· Sat, Sep 5 · 3:30 PM ET

Spread

Texas State +29.5

-110

Four touchdowns plus a hook is a lot to ask of any favorite in an opener, especially against an in-state Group of Five program that will treat this as its biggest game of the year. Once a margin like this gets comfortable, the favorite starts rotating in second-teamers and simplifying the call sheet, and backdoor points become very real. I respect the talent gap, but I am taking the number, not the team.

Florida Atlantic at Florida· Sat, Sep 5 · 7:45 PM ET

Spread

Florida Atlantic +26.5

-110

Florida Atlantic catching 26.5 in the Swamp is the kind of ugly ticket nobody wants to hold, which is exactly why I want it. The crowd sees a big orange-and-blue name in an opener and lays four touchdowns without thinking. Florida only has to get a little conservative late for that backdoor to swing open.

Youngstown State at Kentucky· Sat, Sep 5 · 1:00 PM ET

Spread

Youngstown State +22.5

-110

Youngstown State plus 22.5 is not a sexy sentence, and that is the point. Kentucky is a program the public prices like a juggernaut in September. An FCS outfit that can shorten the game only has to stay out of its own way to hang inside three scores.